Monday, July 21, 2014

Calibrating the simulation

Having made a few adjustments to the newest peloton simulation model, I have produced an excellent simulation result of the women's 2013 BC Championships Points race. 

Figure 1 is a graph of the actual position data from the women's Points race.  There were 14 riders in the race.

Figure 1. Position data from 2013 women's Points race, BC Championships.

In the Netlogo model, I set 14 simulated riders with maximal-sustainable-outputs (MSOs) corresponding to those of the women in the race*.  Using the speed data from that race, I inputted the speeds in the appropriate time sequence into the simulation, corresponding to power values in the second graph from the top in Figure 2 below. This generated the position graph (top graph below). The similarities are quite remarkable, and this is good evidence that the new model is solid.

Figure 2.  Simulation results using data from women's Points race.  14 riders with MSOs corresponding to 200m sprint times. Speeds were input according to data (indicated by power graph), and the outputs are shown by the position graph, PCR, and peloton stretch. Peloton stretch is the distance from the front rider to the rear rider, indicating changing length of the peloton.

*I used the 200m sprint times as the starting point for these. There were three riders in the points race who did not race the 200m TT, and so I used the mean of the other 11 for the missing ones in the simulation.

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